It’s time for me to pull out my crystal ball and take a peek at what lies ahead for the 
craft market in 2009.
Prediction one - The economy will recover but slowly in 2009
The down economy is going to make it harder on crafters in two ways:
- People are going to think a lot harder before they pull their wallets out especially on non-essentials like craft items.
- People are going to be looking for extra ways to make money and anybody that’s ever been in a craft store is going to think to themselves “I could make that and sell it.” The crowded craft market is going to get a lot more crowded in 2009
Prediction two - This will be a crucial year for Etsy
2008 was the year that Etsy really gained traction with consumers. Traffic went through the roof so those that were in on Etsy early really prospered but all the attention brought a lot more shops which meant more competition. Etsy filled the gap as crafters abandoned eBay because of competition from foreign mass-produced merchandise. Rapid growth has caused growing pains as Etsy tries to keep up with increasing demands from consumers and shop owners. Etsy found the shoppers now they need to focus their attention on shop owners. Etsy needs to uphold the guides they created which made their site so attractive to crafters to begin with. They need to hold shop owners accountable for breaking the rules. There seems to be little penalty for breaking the rules even when pointed out and as competition increases more shop owners will break the rules to keep afloat. If Etsy can’t deliver on this they will lose increasing numbers of top shop owners.
Prediction three - Artfire will gain substantial traction in 2009
Artfire has only been open for about 3 months but they have grabbed the attention of the crafting community. Artfire is hungry - they want a piece of the pie Etsy stole from eBay. The question in 2009 is will they be able to catch up. Etsy has a good three year head-start and Artfire has the proverbial chicken and egg problem - how can they attract crafters if there is little traffic and how can they attract traffic if there are few crafters. They are listening to what crafters want and are spending heavily on advertising so if they can survive the start-up they will be a serious contender in the craft market.
Prediction four - The CPSIA will have little affect on the hand-made market
I’ve already shared my thoughts on the CPSIA and I hold true to those beliefs in 2009. One of two things is going to happen in 2009 with regards to the CPSIA:
- The law will be changed and small manufactures like crafters will be exempt.
- The law will go into effect but it won’t be enforced on one-man shops. As I stated in my previous article the government has a lot bigger things to do than to bust Aunt Martha for selling onesies at the church craft show.
By the same token Etsy can’t keep up to blatant violations on it’s site so I can’t imagine them investigating whether or not it’s shop owners are in full compliance with this super vague law.
So that’s it, the year will tell whether I’m right or wrong. So what can you do to prepare for 2009:
- Provide massive value
People are going to be more cautious with their money so offer awesome products and take the risk away from buying by offering generous guarantees. - Invest in your education
Competition is only going to increase in 2009 so you need to have every advantage you can. It’s not just what you sell, it’s also how you sell it. The $9 investment in my Prosper on Etsy Guide might be the best bargain in 2009. - Teach or offer a supply in 2009
As more people are looking to make some extra money the real winners will be those that sell training, patterns or supplies. During a gold rush the people that make money are the mining supply vendors and not the miners. - Check out Artfire
Here’s my blatant Artfire affiliate link which if I get 10 people to sign up gives me free listing privileges there. Here’s their direct link if you don’t want to use my affiliate link. Either way check them out. - Diversify
All the fuss over the CPSIA should point out how important it is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless of what type craft products you make, hedge your bet by diversifying.
Here’s to happy and prosperous 2009
Norm Lanier - The Crafty Coach
Post your craft predictions here
{ 14 comments… read them below or add one }
Another excellent post, Norm. Look for a re-Tweet.
Happy Holidays!
Great post! Thanks for taking a big picture look at everything–your insights are fantastic.
Excellant predictions. My favorite was your observance that during a gold rush the ones that make the money are the ones selling mining equipment. I was thinking about buying your Etsy Guide, now I am positive that I will. Thanks for all the hard work you do to make life easier for us.
I’ll admit, the thought of the craft market becoming even more crowded is a little scary. I have a plan of action thought
Thanks for the tips!
As usual, you are right on, Norm!
I both enjoy and learn from each of your posts - especially the one about ‘one basket’ - diversity in product and where I market them is going to be my watchword this coming year.
Thanks, Norm, for the great article. I had thought of going in the teaching direction, especially since there are soo many jewelry shops already on Etsy. I plan to revamp my shop, product, & selling strategies in the new year. Have to stay competitive to survive.
I think your predictions are spot-on. Have a great holiday!
Would like to know how to get an affiliate link like yours.
Thanks
Great site, Norm. I agree on CPSIA - way too much work for the gov’t to enforce with the smalltime Crafter. Will check out Artfire, too. I’m hoping to teach workshops in pastel painting this year, and so am looking for interested hosting groups. Since my day job is a teacher, and my hobby is an artist, I think it will be a real success!
I really like your insights - especially on diversifying! I’m going to show your post to my husband, who thinks I am into too many things. I sell my free range chicken and duck and guinea eggs at a local farmer’s market in the summer, and I blow the eggs and clean them and sell them to crafters in the winter. I am a potter. I have fiber goats and I am getting ready to sell the nicest mohair to doll-makers for born-again doll hair. And then, I’m also baking up a storm and selling my caramel nut rolls and cinnamon rolls at a local coffee shop.
Diversity keeps things interesting and fun! If only I could keep up with the paperwork - I know that last year, I failed to keep track of way too many business expenses. I need a much better plan this year!
thank you for saying “During a gold rush the people that make money are the mining supply vendors and not the miners.”! i had thought of switching from finished products to kit w/ supplies and my instructions (that i already sell). i think that comment hit the nail on the head! if people can’t sell/buy the finished items, they will be wanting to learn to make it themselves! good to see someone is on the same page as me!
We just bought your Etsy guide. Can’t wait to receive it!
We have been selling in eBay for 4 years. eBay had been really good to us as they have sent the traffic to us. Now it can be a real hassle, with the all the unwanted changes they have made. We used to sell at lot through Store listings, but, now, visibility is almost zero for Stores. And Store listings were found really easy through Google searches. These days we don’t even show up with a Google search. Seems like Google doesn’t like eBay and disallows connections between eBay’s Store updater and Google search. Oh well, it was good while it lasted.
Time to move on
These days we get our business from referrals, past eBay customers who no longer use eBay and Facebook. Diversity is really the key, if you have enough product to go around…
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